TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 21? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$431,437
7,000 or above 100%
7,025 or above 100%
7,050 or above 100%
Closed: Apr 21, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group comprises 13 linked binary markets asking whether SPY (S&P 500 ETF) will close above various price thresholds ($680–$730 in $5 increments) on April 21, 2026. Each market resolves independently based on the official closing price for that single trading day, creating a price-ladder structure where outcomes are mutually exclusive and hierarchically ordered.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All Polymarket questions in this group use identical resolution logic based on Pyth Close prices for SPY on April 21, 2026, with consistent rules for data sourcing, stock splits, and tie-breaking. Kalshi provides no conflicting rules, so the Polymarket framework governs the entire group.
Primary resolution logic:
Pyth Data (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD), with fallback to primary exchange official closing price if Pyth data is unavailable.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if and only if SPY Close price on April 21, 2026 is strictly greater than the specified threshold price.
- Market resolves NO if SPY Close price is equal to or less than the specified threshold price.
- Closing price is determined by Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
- If Pyth Close is unavailable for that candle, the last valid Pyth price during regular hours is used; if no Pyth data exists, the official exchange closing price is used.
- In the event of a stock split or reverse split, the threshold price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted prices from Pyth.
- If SPY does not trade during the regular session, the market resolves 50-50.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Stock Split Adjustment: If a stock split or reverse split occurs between market creation and April 21, 2026, the threshold price will be adjusted proportionally and resolution will use split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
- Data Unavailability Cascade: If Pyth Close for the final 1-minute candle is unavailable, the last valid Pyth price during regular hours is used. If no Pyth data exists for the entire trading day due to system outage or technical failure, the official closing price published by the primary exchange is used.
- No Trading Session: If SPY does not trade at all during the regular session on April 21, 2026, the market resolves 50-50 rather than YES or NO.
- Exact Price Match: If the SPY Close price equals the threshold price exactly, the market resolves NO (not YES), as the condition requires the price to be strictly above the threshold.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on April 21, 2026, based on the official Pyth Close value or equivalent price source for that date. All 13 markets in the group share the same event date and resolution window.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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