TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?

polymarket

kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?

Volume:

$523,497

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?

- Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 10, 2026

Closed: Mar 9, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$312,489

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$28,487

N/A

N/A

$12,399

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,725 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$27,677

N/A

N/A

$8,948

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$27,377

N/A

N/A

$22,941

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,750 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$20,447

N/A

N/A

$5,243

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,450 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$7,856

N/A

N/A

$7,472

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,775 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$7,229

N/A

N/A

$2,484

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,650 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$7,189

N/A

N/A

$4,831

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,625 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,848

N/A

N/A

$4,699

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,675 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,639

N/A

N/A

$3,794

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,575 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,135

N/A

N/A

$650

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,550 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,094

N/A

N/A

$539

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,042

N/A

N/A

$667

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,525 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$955

N/A

N/A

$879

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,475 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$828

N/A

N/A

$613

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,250 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$500

N/A

N/A

$500

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$347

N/A

N/A

$227

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,375 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$230

N/A

N/A

$166

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,425 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$191

N/A

N/A

$92

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,350 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$149

N/A

N/A

$129

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$115

N/A

N/A

$115

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,325 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$80

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,125 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$90

N/A

N/A

$85

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$80

N/A

N/A

$80

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,275 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$80

N/A

N/A

$80

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 9, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both markets reference the official closing price for that date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison logic, while Kalshi uses 50 distinct absolute price thresholds. The two platforms are measuring fundamentally different outcomes and cannot be reconciled into a single unified resolution.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets. Polymarket requires knowledge of March 8, 2026 close (or prior trading day if March 8 is a holiday). Kalshi requires identifying your specific threshold contract and comparing March 9 close against that single level. Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable here due to structural incompatibility.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Relative movement market. Resolves Up if March 9 close > prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
Kalshi: Absolute threshold market with 50 separate Yes conditions, each tied to a different price level (6074.9999 to 7549.9999). No explicit No condition stated; implicit No would be if close is at or below the lowest applicable threshold. Does not reference prior-day close or relative movement.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.