TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$144,726
6,850 to 6,874.9999 0%
6,725 to 6,749.9999 100%
6,800 to 6,824.9999 0%
Closed: Mar 6, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether the S&P 500 index will close higher or lower on March 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi's rules appear to resolve to Yes across nearly all price ranges, while Polymarket explicitly resolves based on directional movement (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is internally incomplete and contradicts Polymarket's directional framework. Kalshi lists 30 Yes conditions covering nearly all realistic SPX price ranges (6550 to 7250+) but provides no explicit No condition, making the market logically unresolvable as specified. Polymarket uses a clear relative comparison (Up vs Down vs Tie) to the prior close.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market based on the provided rules without confirming the actual on-platform specification. The 30 Yes bands suggest either a documentation error, a missing baseline price, or an incomplete rule set. Polymarket's market is resolvable and clear: it is a directional bet on whether SPX will be higher or lower than the prior trading day. If you must trade both, treat them as separate instruments and do not assume convergence.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves Yes if SPX closes in any of 30 specified 25-point bands ranging from below 6550 to above 7250. No explicit No condition is provided. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 06, 2026 is between [X]-[Y], then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure is logically incomplete.Polymarket:
Resolves Up if March 6 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 6 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 6, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.' Clear directional comparison.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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