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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6?
kalshi
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6?

Volume:
$144,726

6,725 to 6,749.9999

 - Kalshi

6,725 to 6,749.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,725 to 6,749.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,586
N/A
N/A
$4,128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,800 to 6,824.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,393
N/A
N/A
$16,595
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 to 6,874.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,134
N/A
N/A
$8,646
Settled
No
kalshi

6,549.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,174
N/A
N/A
$5,820
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 to 6,849.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,157
N/A
N/A
$8,907
Settled
No
kalshi

6,750 to 6,774.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,686
N/A
N/A
$8,616
Settled
No
kalshi

6,775 to 6,799.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,309
N/A
N/A
$6,380
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 to 6,899.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,014
N/A
N/A
$6,081
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 to 6,724.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,567
N/A
N/A
$4,691
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 to 6,949.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,477
N/A
N/A
$4,474
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 to 6,699.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,280
N/A
N/A
$3,908
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 to 6,674.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,890
N/A
N/A
$4,785
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 to 6,924.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,280
N/A
N/A
$3,188
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 to 7,024.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,195
N/A
N/A
$2,982
Settled
No
kalshi

7,050 to 7,074.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,998
N/A
N/A
$284
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 to 6,999.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,830
N/A
N/A
$1,202
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 to 6,974.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,392
N/A
N/A
$1,575
Settled
No
kalshi

6,550 to 6,574.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,709
N/A
N/A
$1,709
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 to 6,649.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,619
N/A
N/A
$1,488
Settled
No
kalshi

7,075 to 7,099.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,430
N/A
N/A
$1,430
Settled
No
kalshi

7,025 to 7,049.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,216
N/A
N/A
$580
Settled
No
kalshi

6,600 to 6,624.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$846
N/A
N/A
$803
Settled
No
kalshi

6,575 to 6,599.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
No
kalshi

7,225 to 7,249.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

7,200 to 7,224.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$461
N/A
N/A
$461
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group asks whether the S&P 500 index will close higher or lower on March 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi's rules appear to resolve to Yes across nearly all price ranges, while Polymarket explicitly resolves based on directional movement (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally incomplete and contradicts Polymarket's directional framework. Kalshi lists 30 Yes conditions covering nearly all realistic SPX price ranges (6550 to 7250+) but provides no explicit No condition, making the market logically unresolvable as specified. Polymarket uses a clear relative comparison (Up vs Down vs Tie) to the prior close.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's market based on the provided rules without confirming the actual on-platform specification. The 30 Yes bands suggest either a documentation error, a missing baseline price, or an incomplete rule set. Polymarket's market is resolvable and clear: it is a directional bet on whether SPX will be higher or lower than the prior trading day. If you must trade both, treat them as separate instruments and do not assume convergence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if SPX closes in any of 30 specified 25-point bands ranging from below 6550 to above 7250. No explicit No condition is provided. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 06, 2026 is between [X]-[Y], then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure is logically incomplete.
  • Polymarket: Resolves Up if March 6 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 6 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 6, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.' Clear directional comparison.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.