TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$73,727
6,825 or above 100%
6,800 or above 100%
6,775 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 5, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 5, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary contracts, each tied to specific price thresholds on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally incompatible resolution architectures. Polymarket is a single binary directional market (Up vs Down relative to prior close); Kalshi is a suite of 60 separate absolute-level contracts. No logical bridge exists between them, and resolution of one platform provides no deterministic outcome for the other.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible. Polymarket Up does not equal any specific Kalshi Yes outcome. Confirm your platform choice and understand that a move from 6500 to 6550 (Polymarket Up) could resolve Yes on only ~30 of the 60 Kalshi contracts. Arbitrage is not possible; these are separate products with separate payoff structures.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Single binary directional market. Resolves Up if SPX close on March 5, 2026 is higher than the most recent prior trading day close; resolves Down if lower. Resolves 50-50 if equal, if no regular session trade occurs, or if either day has no official closing price (uses last valid on-exchange trade as fallback). Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices Close values. Shortened trading days are honored; official closing price is used regardless of session length.Kalshi:
60 separate binary contracts, each with a distinct absolute price threshold. Each contract resolves Yes if end-of-day SPX on March 5, 2026 exceeds its specific threshold (e.g., contract 1 at 6599.9999, contract 10 at 7499.9999, contract 60 at 6049.9999). No source specified. No tie-breaking, edge case, or cancellation logic provided. No fallback for missing data or trading halts.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.