TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$358,452
6,825 or above 100%
6,850 or above 100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? 100%
Closed: Mar 4, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 4, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts each tied to specific absolute price thresholds on that single date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different outcomes: Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day price movement (Up/Down), while Kalshi resolves on absolute index price levels. The markets are not interchangeable and will produce different settlement outcomes even with identical March 4 closing prices.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket requires knowledge of the March 3, 2026 close to determine direction; Kalshi requires only the March 4 close. Arbitrage is not possible between them. Confirm your platform's settlement source and logic before taking a position.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative movement market. Resolves Up if March 4 close > March 3 close (or most recent prior trading day); resolves Down if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (WSJ.com/market-data/stocks). Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.Kalshi:
Absolute price threshold market. 60 separate Yes/No contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX on March 4 exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 6124.9999 to 7599.9999). All thresholds are absolute values; no relative comparison. No explicit resolution source or edge-case handling documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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