TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?

polymarket

kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?

Volume:

$358,452

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?

- Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 5, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$288,072

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,850 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$12,423

N/A

N/A

$8,281

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,825 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,723

N/A

N/A

$2,235

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5,771

N/A

N/A

$3,582

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,775 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,801

N/A

N/A

$1,300

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,750 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,118

N/A

N/A

$742

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$676

N/A

N/A

$676

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,575 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$326

N/A

N/A

$302

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$305

N/A

N/A

$305

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,625 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$303

N/A

N/A

$303

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$252

N/A

N/A

$142

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,725 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$195

N/A

N/A

$159

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,675 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$194

N/A

N/A

$166

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,650 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$66

N/A

N/A

$66

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,150 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,125 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,550 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,875 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$30,054

N/A

N/A

$8,044

Settled

No

kalshi

6,900 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$7,739

N/A

N/A

$4,517

Settled

No

kalshi

6,925 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$1,493

N/A

N/A

$672

Settled

No

kalshi

6,950 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$749

N/A

N/A

$749

Settled

No

kalshi

7,575 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$92

N/A

N/A

$92

Settled

No

kalshi

6,975 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$68

N/A

N/A

$65

Settled

No

kalshi

7,125 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$4

N/A

N/A

$4

Settled

No

kalshi

7,150 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

No

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 4, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers 60 individual binary contracts each tied to specific absolute price thresholds on that single date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different outcomes: Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day price movement (Up/Down), while Kalshi resolves on absolute index price levels. The markets are not interchangeable and will produce different settlement outcomes even with identical March 4 closing prices.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket requires knowledge of the March 3, 2026 close to determine direction; Kalshi requires only the March 4 close. Arbitrage is not possible between them. Confirm your platform's settlement source and logic before taking a position.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Relative movement market. Resolves Up if March 4 close > March 3 close (or most recent prior trading day); resolves Down if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices (WSJ.com/market-data/stocks). Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
Kalshi: Absolute price threshold market. 60 separate Yes/No contracts, each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX on March 4 exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 6124.9999 to 7599.9999). All thresholds are absolute values; no relative comparison. No explicit resolution source or edge-case handling documented.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.