TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30?

Volume:
$474,758

6,325 or above

 - Kalshi

6,325 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,325 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26,417
N/A
N/A
$9,338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,876
N/A
N/A
$7,584
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,732
N/A
N/A
$3,358
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,025 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,227
N/A
N/A
$2,039
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,275 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,057
N/A
N/A
$1,495
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,536
N/A
N/A
$1,341
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,465
N/A
N/A
$1,465
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,925 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,401
N/A
N/A
$1,173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,354
N/A
N/A
$1,354
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,950 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
$1,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,825 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,104
N/A
N/A
$1,104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,975 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,031
N/A
N/A
$1,009
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,775 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$970
N/A
N/A
$967
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,075 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$878
N/A
N/A
$861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,875 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$834
N/A
N/A
$834
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$683
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,150 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$625
N/A
N/A
$602
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,225 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$482
N/A
N/A
$470
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,850 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
$479
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,725 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
$289
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,175 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$166
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$123
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,125 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market resolves based on whether the S&P 500 Index closing price on Monday, March 30, 2026 is higher ('Up'), lower ('Down'), or equal ('50-50 split') compared to the most recent prior trading day's close. The resolution uses official closing prices from the Wall Street Journal's Historical Prices data, with fallback provisions for shortened sessions, trading halts, or other disruptions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (44 separate price-level conditions). These frameworks cannot produce identical outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero tip: If you trade this event, understand that Polymarket and Kalshi will almost certainly resolve to different outcomes. Polymarket cares only about whether March 30 closes higher or lower than March 27 (or the prior trading day). Kalshi cares only about whether the absolute closing value exceeds one of 44 specific thresholds. A market that resolves UP on Polymarket (higher close than prior day) could resolve NO on all 44 Kalshi conditions if the absolute level is below the lowest threshold (5724.9999), and vice versa. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage opportunities without explicitly calculating both outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on directional price movement only. Market resolves UP if March 30 closing price is higher than the most recent prior trading day closing price, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, March 30, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on absolute index level thresholds only. Market contains 44 separate YES/NO conditions, each tied to whether the end-of-day SPX value exceeds a specific price level (ranging from 5724.9999 to 7199.9999). No directional comparison to prior trading day is performed. Logic: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 30, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.