TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3?

Volume:
$529,326

6,800 or above

 - Kalshi

6,800 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 3, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33,669
N/A
N/A
$10,030
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,775 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,013
N/A
N/A
$3,318
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,854
N/A
N/A
$1,645
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,725 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,083
N/A
N/A
$1,246
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,597
N/A
N/A
$1,597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,582
N/A
N/A
$820
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,675 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
$155
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,625 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
$64
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,825 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,673
N/A
N/A
$10,399
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,214
N/A
N/A
$11,149
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,200
N/A
N/A
$4,173
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,937
N/A
N/A
$1,364
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
$324
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$68
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

7,225 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,325 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,600 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,200 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,375 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 3, 2026 compared to the prior trading day (Polymarket) versus whether it closes above various absolute price thresholds (Kalshi). Both markets settle on the same date but measure fundamentally different outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket measures relative daily price movement (up vs down versus prior close), while Kalshi measures absolute index levels against fixed thresholds. The outcome spaces are incompatible and cannot be reconciled.Hero tip: These markets answer different questions. Polymarket tells you if SPX moved up or down on March 3. Kalshi tells you if SPX ended above specific price points. You cannot hedge one with the other. Choose your market based on your actual prediction: directional movement (Polymarket) or absolute level (Kalshi).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Relative movement contract. Resolves UP if March 3 close > prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trades) by using last valid on-exchange trade price.
  • Kalshi: 60 separate absolute-level contracts. Each resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 3, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., above 6649.9999, above 7599.9999, etc.). No explicit NO resolution logic or tie-breaking rules documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.