TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$529,326
6,800 or above 100%
6,775 or above 100%
6,750 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 3, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on March 3, 2026 compared to the prior trading day (Polymarket) versus whether it closes above various absolute price thresholds (Kalshi). Both markets settle on the same date but measure fundamentally different outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket measures relative daily price movement (up vs down versus prior close), while Kalshi measures absolute index levels against fixed thresholds. The outcome spaces are incompatible and cannot be reconciled.Hero Tip:
These markets answer different questions. Polymarket tells you if SPX moved up or down on March 3. Kalshi tells you if SPX ended above specific price points. You cannot hedge one with the other. Choose your market based on your actual prediction: directional movement (Polymarket) or absolute level (Kalshi).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative movement contract. Resolves UP if March 3 close > prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trades) by using last valid on-exchange trade price.Kalshi:
60 separate absolute-level contracts. Each resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 3, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., above 6649.9999, above 7599.9999, etc.). No explicit NO resolution logic or tie-breaking rules documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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