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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?

Volume:
$149,369

6,600 or above

 - Kalshi

6,600 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 19, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,004
N/A
N/A
$9,941
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,044
N/A
N/A
$21,209
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,243
N/A
N/A
$5,259
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,374
N/A
N/A
$2,944
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,878
N/A
N/A
$1,284
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,435
N/A
N/A
$1,321
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,332
N/A
N/A
$1,302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,296
N/A
N/A
$1,286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$148
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,325 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,375 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,350 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,225 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,650 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,554
N/A
N/A
$21,579
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,245
N/A
N/A
$9,975
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,846
N/A
N/A
$20,495
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
$455
Settled
No
kalshi

6,750 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 separate binary markets each resolving on absolute SPX index thresholds. These are logically distinct events with no common resolution path.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are equivalent. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement only (e.g., SPX closes higher than March 18). On Kalshi, you are betting on 60 separate absolute price levels. A single SPX close on March 19 will resolve differently across the two platforms. Example: if SPX closes at 6500 on March 19 and was 6400 on March 18, Polymarket resolves YES (Up), but Kalshi resolves YES on only those thresholds below 6500 and NO on those above.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves as a single binary event based on directional price movement. YES if March 19 SPX close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close; NO if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices Close values. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves as 60 separate binary markets, each tied to a distinct absolute SPX index threshold (ranging from 5949.9999 to 7424.9999). Each market independently resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 19 exceeds its specific threshold, NO otherwise. No directional comparison to prior day. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 19, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.