TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$221,341
6,600 to 6,624.9999 0%
6,625 to 6,649.9999 100%
6,650 to 6,674.9999 0%
Closed: Mar 13, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether the S&P 500 index will close higher or lower on March 13, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi's market uses absolute price bands to determine Yes/No outcomes, while Polymarket uses a direct day-over-day comparison (Up vs Down).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on absolute SPX price bands (Yes/No), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price direction (Up/Down/50-50). The two markets cannot be directly reconciled.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different payoff structures. Kalshi is a binary bet on SPX landing in one of 30 predefined bands; Polymarket is a directional bet on whether SPX rises or falls from the prior close. Identify Kalshi's No-outcome gaps (e.g., 6675-6699.9999 appears uncovered) and confirm Polymarket's prior trading day before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Binary Yes/No market using 25-point absolute price bands. Resolves Yes if SPX closes below 6475, within any of 30 specified bands (e.g., 6475-6499.9999, 6500-6524.9999, ... 7150-7174.9999), or above 7174.9999. No explicit No outcome is defined; gaps between bands are not addressed. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 13, 2026 is [within band], then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Directional comparison market (Up/Down/50-50). Resolves Up if March 13 close > prior trading day close; Down if < prior close; 50-50 if equal, no trade, or data unavailable. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 13, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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