TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

Volume:
$124,744

6,775 or above

 - Kalshi

6,775 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 10, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,775 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,003
N/A
N/A
$8,109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,791
N/A
N/A
$2,992
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$732
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,725 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$741
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,675 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
$418
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,625 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,025 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5,975 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,255
N/A
N/A
$7,505
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,144
N/A
N/A
$8,909
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,996
N/A
N/A
$3,538
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,739
N/A
N/A
$8,444
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$579
N/A
N/A
$578
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$415
N/A
N/A
$335
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on March 10, 2026 compared to the prior trading day (Polymarket) versus whether the index closes above various absolute price thresholds (Kalshi). The two platforms use fundamentally different resolution methodologies: one measures directional change, the other measures absolute levels.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses directional comparison (vs prior trading day close) while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are distinct resolution methodologies that measure different outcomes and cannot produce equivalent results.Hero tip: These markets measure fundamentally different things. Polymarket answers 'Did SPX go up or down today?' while Kalshi answers 'Is SPX above X level today?' A single price outcome can satisfy one framework but not the other. Treat them as separate trading instruments with independent risk profiles.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional movement market. Resolves UP if March 10, 2026 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trading. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as resolution source. Accounts for market holidays, shortened sessions, and trading halts with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
  • Kalshi: Absolute threshold market with 60 binary conditions. Each resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 10, 2026 exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds span from 5974.9999 to 7449.9999 in 25-point increments. No directional comparison; pure absolute level measurement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.