TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$124,744
6,775 or above 100%
6,700 or above 100%
6,750 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 10, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on March 10, 2026 compared to the prior trading day (Polymarket) versus whether the index closes above various absolute price thresholds (Kalshi). The two platforms use fundamentally different resolution methodologies: one measures directional change, the other measures absolute levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses directional comparison (vs prior trading day close) while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are distinct resolution methodologies that measure different outcomes and cannot produce equivalent results.Hero Tip:
These markets measure fundamentally different things. Polymarket answers 'Did SPX go up or down today?' while Kalshi answers 'Is SPX above X level today?' A single price outcome can satisfy one framework but not the other. Treat them as separate trading instruments with independent risk profiles.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Directional movement market. Resolves UP if March 10, 2026 close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; DOWN if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trading. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as resolution source. Accounts for market holidays, shortened sessions, and trading halts with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.Kalshi:
Absolute threshold market with 60 binary conditions. Each resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 10, 2026 exceeds a specific price level. Thresholds span from 5974.9999 to 7449.9999 in 25-point increments. No directional comparison; pure absolute level measurement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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