TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$315,773
6,950 or above 100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? 100%
6,925 or above 100%
Closed: Apr 14, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket's binary 'Up/Down' structure contrasts sharply with Kalshi's 52 absolute price-level thresholds, creating fundamentally different settlement mechanics despite both referencing the same underlying index value.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 separate binary contracts each tied to specific absolute price thresholds, creating a structural mismatch that prevents unified settlement.Hero Tip:
These are not comparable markets. Polymarket's single binary (Up/Down) cannot be reconciled with Kalshi's 60 threshold-based contracts. Do not assume the same bet exists on both platforms. Verify which specific Kalshi contract you are trading, as each has a different strike level and will resolve independently based on whether SPX closes above that threshold.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves as a single binary comparing April 14, 2026 closing price to the most recent prior trading day's close. Up if higher, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Source is WSJ Historical Prices Close values.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Provides 60 separate binary contracts (items 1-60), each resolving Yes if end-of-day SPX on April 14, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute threshold (ranging from 6049.9999 to 7524.9999), and No otherwise. No reference to prior-day comparison or directional movement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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