TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1?

Volume:
$538,043

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Closed: Apr 1, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$357,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,614
N/A
N/A
$8,327
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,550 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28,823
N/A
N/A
$5,736
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,719
N/A
N/A
$10,860
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,500 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,178
N/A
N/A
$4,262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,450 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,182
N/A
N/A
$1,549
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,315
N/A
N/A
$855
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,400 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
$839
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$345
N/A
N/A
$271
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,350 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$44
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,150 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,175 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,200 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,225 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,250 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,300 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,275 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70,911
N/A
N/A
$29,364
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,089
N/A
N/A
$3,054
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,652
N/A
N/A
$794
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,638
N/A
N/A
$1,503
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
kalshi

6,825 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, April 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, April 1, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (50 binary Yes/No markets at different price points). These frameworks cannot produce equivalent outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. On Polymarket, a 0.1% move up resolves YES; on Kalshi, only moves above specific thresholds (5599.9999, 5624.9999, etc.) resolve YES. If SPX closes at 5600 on April 1, Polymarket may resolve YES or NO depending on March 31 close, while Kalshi resolves YES on all 50 markets. Arbitrage risk is extreme.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on directional comparison between April 1 closing price and the most recent prior trading day closing price. Market resolves UP if April 1 close is higher, DOWN if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, April 1, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on 50 separate absolute price-level thresholds. Each market resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on April 1, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 5574.9999 to 7049.9999), and implicitly NO otherwise. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 01, 2026 is above 5599.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.