TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 17? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Apr 17, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on April 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on April 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds at a specific timestamp (40 different price levels, all resolving YES), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price comparison relative to the prior trading day's close. These are logically contradictory: Kalshi can resolve YES for any price above 58.99 USD/t.oz, whereas Polymarket requires the April 17 close to exceed April 16's close—a relative measure that may resolve NO even if prices are objectively high.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. On Kalshi, you are betting that silver closes above 58.99 on April 17 at 5 PM EDT (a very low bar—almost any positive price movement resolves YES). On Polymarket, you are betting that April 17's close beats April 16's close, which is a relative bet and could resolve NO even if silver is trading at $70+. Kalshi's market is heavily skewed toward YES; Polymarket's is a true 50-50 directional bet. Arbitrage risk is extreme if the two markets price differently.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Kalshi uses 40 absolute price thresholds, all of which trigger a YES resolution. The lowest threshold is 58.99 USD/t.oz. The resolution rule is: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on April 17, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' Since all 40 conditions resolve YES and they cover a continuous range from 58.99 to 97.99, the market effectively resolves YES if and only if the 5 PM EDT close price on April 17 exceeds 58.99 USD/t.oz. There is no NO outcome specified; the market structure implies a YES-only resolution unless the price is 58.99 or below.Polymarket:
Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day comparison: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on April 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.' The closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (not 5 PM EDT as stated in Kalshi). If April 17's close equals April 16's close, the market resolves 50-50. If either day has no valid Pyth Close, fallback to CME COMEX Silver Futures official daily close. This is a relative, day-over-day comparison, not an absolute threshold.
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