TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 6? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$13,838
above 2.750 100%
above 2.770 100%
above 2.790 100%
Closed: Apr 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on April 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi offers 80 separate binary markets, each tied to specific price thresholds at the 5 PM EDT settlement candle, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring day-over-day directional movement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution mechanics. Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds; Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. Both reference the same settlement candle (5 PM EDT, April 6, 2026) and the same primary data source (Pyth), but the resolution logic is structurally different.Hero Tip:
These markets are not substitutes or hedges for each other. Kalshi allows you to bet on specific price levels; Polymarket allows you to bet on direction. Understand your thesis: are you forecasting an absolute price target, or just the direction of movement?Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
80 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 6, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (2.750 to 3.145 USD/MMBtu). All use identical settlement time and Pyth data source. No comparative logic; purely threshold-based.Polymarket:
Single comparative market resolving UP if April 6 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth 1-minute Close at 5:00:00 PM ET with CME fallback. Explicitly relative, not absolute.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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