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402,751

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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 6?
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 6?

Volume:
$13,838

above 2.750

 - Kalshi

above 2.750 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 6, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above 2.750

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
$311
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.790

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$665
N/A
N/A
$560
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.770

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$548
N/A
N/A
$437
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.800

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
$452
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.775

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$359
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.795

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$231
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.755

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$98
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.780

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.760

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.765

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.785

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above 2.850

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,182
N/A
N/A
$2,032
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.820

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,784
N/A
N/A
$522
Settled
No
kalshi

above 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,359
N/A
N/A
$1,358
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.855

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,180
N/A
N/A
$1,018
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.805

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$911
N/A
N/A
$564
Settled
No
kalshi

above 3.005

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
$684
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.860

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$482
N/A
N/A
$425
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.810

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
$393
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.835

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$352
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.845

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
$219
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.915

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.825

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$141
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.840

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
$55
Settled
No
kalshi

above 2.815

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will close higher or lower on April 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi offers 80 separate binary markets, each tied to specific price thresholds at the 5 PM EDT settlement candle, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring day-over-day directional movement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution mechanics. Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds; Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. Both reference the same settlement candle (5 PM EDT, April 6, 2026) and the same primary data source (Pyth), but the resolution logic is structurally different.Hero tip: These markets are not substitutes or hedges for each other. Kalshi allows you to bet on specific price levels; Polymarket allows you to bet on direction. Understand your thesis: are you forecasting an absolute price target, or just the direction of movement?

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 80 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 1-minute candle close at 5 PM EDT on April 6, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (2.750 to 3.145 USD/MMBtu). All use identical settlement time and Pyth data source. No comparative logic; purely threshold-based.
  • Polymarket: Single comparative market resolving UP if April 6 close > prior trading day close, DOWN if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth 1-minute Close at 5:00:00 PM ET with CME fallback. Explicitly relative, not absolute.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.