TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$60,013
22,400 or above 100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9? 100%
22,000 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Monday, March 9, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds. Both use official closing prices from the Wall Street Journal as the resolution source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs prior trading day), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are incompatible frameworks without external reference data (the prior trading day close).Hero Tip:
Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things. Polymarket Up does not equal any single Kalshi threshold. Determine the March 6, 2026 (or March 5 if holiday) closing price to map Polymarket outcomes to Kalshi outcomes. Treat as separate markets with different risk profiles.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if March 9, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Uses official closing price, or last valid on-exchange trade if no official close available. Shortened trading days still use official close.Kalshi:
60 separate absolute threshold markets. Each resolves Yes if March 9, 2026 end-of-day NDX value exceeds a specific price level (21999.99 to 27899.99). No directional or comparative logic; purely absolute price settlement. No mention of prior trading day or source specification.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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