TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9?

Volume:

$60,013

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 10, 2026

Closed: Mar 9, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$26,702

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$7,589

N/A

N/A

$7,500

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,473

N/A

N/A

$3,453

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,129

N/A

N/A

$3,129

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,762

N/A

N/A

$1,785

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,005

N/A

N/A

$2,005

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,514

N/A

N/A

$1,180

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,486

N/A

N/A

$750

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,352

N/A

N/A

$378

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,009

N/A

N/A

$233

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$902

N/A

N/A

$560

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$788

N/A

N/A

$190

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$633

N/A

N/A

$430

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$426

N/A

N/A

$201

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$411

N/A

N/A

$375

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$150

N/A

N/A

$150

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$128

N/A

N/A

$127

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$84

N/A

N/A

$84

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$18

N/A

N/A

$18

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$13

N/A

N/A

$13

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5

N/A

N/A

$5

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1

N/A

N/A

$1

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Monday, March 9, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds. Both use official closing prices from the Wall Street Journal as the resolution source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses relative directional settlement (vs prior trading day), while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. These are incompatible frameworks without external reference data (the prior trading day close).Hero tip: Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things. Polymarket Up does not equal any single Kalshi threshold. Determine the March 6, 2026 (or March 5 if holiday) closing price to map Polymarket outcomes to Kalshi outcomes. Treat as separate markets with different risk profiles.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if March 9, 2026 close > most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Uses official closing price, or last valid on-exchange trade if no official close available. Shortened trading days still use official close.
Kalshi: 60 separate absolute threshold markets. Each resolves Yes if March 9, 2026 end-of-day NDX value exceeds a specific price level (21999.99 to 27899.99). No directional or comparative logic; purely absolute price settlement. No mention of prior trading day or source specification.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.