TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 6? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$87,100
23,599.99 or below 0%
24,800 to 24,899.99 0%
24,600 to 24,699.99 100%
Closed: Mar 6, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close higher or lower on March 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi's rules appear to enumerate specific price bands that all resolve to Yes, while Polymarket frames the question as a directional comparison (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's ruleset is logically incoherent and incomplete: it enumerates 30 price bands all resolving to Yes with no explicit No outcome, contains coverage gaps, and does not define what happens outside the enumerated ranges. Polymarket uses a coherent relative directional framework (Up/Down vs prior close). These are incompatible resolution mechanisms, and Kalshi's market is fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market structure is broken. The ruleset covers only ~3200 index points, leaves gaps, and provides no No resolution path. Polymarket's market is well-defined and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi contracts, expect resolution disputes or cancellation. Polymarket is the safer, clearer instrument.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Enumerates 30 discrete 100-point price bands (23600-23699.99, 23700-23799.99, ... 26300-26399.99, and above 26399.99), all resolving to Yes. No explicit No outcome defined. Leaves gaps in coverage (e.g., 23500-23599.99, 25000-25099.99 boundaries unclear). Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 06, 2026 is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.' This is incomplete and unresolvable.Polymarket:
Resolves Up if March 6 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 6 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trade) explicitly. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 6, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.' Clear, complete, and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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