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MATCHED EVENTS:

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Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 6?
kalshi
polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 6?

Volume:
$87,100

24,600 to 24,699.99

 - Kalshi

24,600 to 24,699.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

24,600 to 24,699.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,445
N/A
N/A
$888
Settled
Yes
kalshi

24,800 to 24,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,242
N/A
N/A
$1,453
Settled
No
kalshi

23,599.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,428
N/A
N/A
$2,736
Settled
No
kalshi

23,600 to 23,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,158
N/A
N/A
$3,158
Settled
No
kalshi

24,900 to 24,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
$1,506
Settled
No
kalshi

24,700 to 24,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,585
N/A
N/A
$957
Settled
No
kalshi

24,000 to 24,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,523
N/A
N/A
$1,444
Settled
No
kalshi

24,400 to 24,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,451
N/A
N/A
$752
Settled
No
kalshi

25,000 to 25,099.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,224
N/A
N/A
$970
Settled
No
kalshi

25,100 to 25,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$992
N/A
N/A
$931
Settled
No
kalshi

25,400 to 25,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
No
kalshi

25,300 to 25,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$553
N/A
N/A
$408
Settled
No
kalshi

23,700 to 23,799.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
$512
Settled
No
kalshi

24,500 to 24,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$430
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
kalshi

23,900 to 23,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
$361
Settled
No
kalshi

24,300 to 24,399.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$259
N/A
N/A
$259
Settled
No
kalshi

24,200 to 24,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

24,100 to 24,199.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
$141
Settled
No
kalshi

25,200 to 25,299.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
kalshi

23,800 to 23,899.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
kalshi

25,500 to 25,599.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$55
Settled
No
kalshi

25,600 to 25,699.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

26,400 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

25,900 to 25,999.99

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

26,200 to 26,299.99

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event group asks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index will close higher or lower on March 6, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Kalshi's rules appear to enumerate specific price bands that all resolve to Yes, while Polymarket frames the question as a directional comparison (Up vs Down) relative to the previous close.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's ruleset is logically incoherent and incomplete: it enumerates 30 price bands all resolving to Yes with no explicit No outcome, contains coverage gaps, and does not define what happens outside the enumerated ranges. Polymarket uses a coherent relative directional framework (Up/Down vs prior close). These are incompatible resolution mechanisms, and Kalshi's market is fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure is broken. The ruleset covers only ~3200 index points, leaves gaps, and provides no No resolution path. Polymarket's market is well-defined and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi contracts, expect resolution disputes or cancellation. Polymarket is the safer, clearer instrument.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Enumerates 30 discrete 100-point price bands (23600-23699.99, 23700-23799.99, ... 26300-26399.99, and above 26399.99), all resolving to Yes. No explicit No outcome defined. Leaves gaps in coverage (e.g., 23500-23599.99, 25000-25099.99 boundaries unclear). Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 06, 2026 is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.' This is incomplete and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Resolves Up if March 6 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 6 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles edge cases (shortened sessions, trading halts, no trade) explicitly. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Friday, March 6, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.' Clear, complete, and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.