TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 5? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$14,133
25,000 or above 100%
24,800 or above 100%
24,900 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 5, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on March 5, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds. Both ultimately depend on the official closing price of NDX on March 5, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible market structures: Polymarket is a directional comparison (Up/Down vs prior close), while Kalshi comprises 60 absolute price-level markets. Additionally, Kalshi lacks explicit resolution source, tie-breaking rules, and no-trade provisions that Polymarket clearly defines.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate product lines, not equivalent markets. Polymarket requires knowledge of the prior trading day's close to interpret the outcome. Kalshi requires you to select specific price thresholds matching your forecast. Cross-reference Kalshi outcomes against an independent NDX data source (e.g., Nasdaq official, Bloomberg, or Yahoo Finance) to verify resolution, as the platform does not cite its source.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if March 5 close exceeds prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no regular session trade. Uses WSJ Historical Prices (Close values) as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Thursday, March 5, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'Kalshi:
60 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 5 exceeds a specific absolute price threshold (21699.99 to 27599.99). No explicit resolution source, tie-breaking logic, or no-trade provisions stated. All 60 conditions use identical 'above X.XX' logic with no fallback rules. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 05, 2026 is above 25799.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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