TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$33,909
24,100 or above 100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4? 100%
24,900 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 4, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on March 4, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official closing prices from the Nasdaq 100 Index.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible resolution architectures. Polymarket measures relative day-over-day price change, while Kalshi measures absolute closing price levels. A single NDX close on March 4, 2026 will produce one Polymarket outcome but potentially multiple Kalshi outcomes depending on which threshold contract is being evaluated.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate market families. For Polymarket, you must know the March 3, 2026 (or most recent prior trading day) closing price to predict the outcome. For Kalshi, identify which specific price threshold you are trading and compare it directly to the March 4 close. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible here due to structural incompatibility.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative directional resolution. Resolves Up if March 4 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 4 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, March 4, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'Kalshi:
Absolute price level resolution. 60 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 4, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., above 21899.99, above 25199.99, etc.). No explicit source cited; no relative comparison logic. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 04, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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