TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4?

Volume:

$33,909

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 5, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 4?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$14,347

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,001

N/A

N/A

$1,001

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$624

N/A

N/A

$441

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$618

N/A

N/A

$618

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$512

N/A

N/A

$506

Settled

Yes

kalshi

25,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$414

N/A

N/A

$183

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$216

N/A

N/A

$216

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$216

N/A

N/A

$216

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$211

N/A

N/A

$106

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$199

N/A

N/A

$105

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$134

N/A

N/A

$81

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$74

N/A

N/A

$72

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$20

N/A

N/A

$20

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$15

N/A

N/A

$15

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

22,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3

N/A

N/A

$3

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on March 4, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on official closing prices from the Nasdaq 100 Index.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible resolution architectures. Polymarket measures relative day-over-day price change, while Kalshi measures absolute closing price levels. A single NDX close on March 4, 2026 will produce one Polymarket outcome but potentially multiple Kalshi outcomes depending on which threshold contract is being evaluated.Hero tip: Treat these as separate market families. For Polymarket, you must know the March 3, 2026 (or most recent prior trading day) closing price to predict the outcome. For Kalshi, identify which specific price threshold you are trading and compare it directly to the March 4 close. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible here due to structural incompatibility.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Relative directional resolution. Resolves Up if March 4 close > prior trading day close; Down if March 4 close < prior trading day close; 50-50 if equal. Source: Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, March 4, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Kalshi: Absolute price level resolution. 60 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 4, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., above 21899.99, above 25199.99, etc.). No explicit source cited; no relative comparison logic. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 04, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.