TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 26? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 26, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Thursday, March 26, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Thursday, March 26, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 mutually exclusive absolute price-level thresholds that create logical contradictions and make simultaneous resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms expecting consistent outcomes. Polymarket's binary Up/Down framework is resolvable and clear. Kalshi's 60 overlapping threshold conditions are logically incoherent—every possible NDX close above 20999.99 triggers YES on multiple conditions simultaneously, and no condition ever resolves NO. Treat Kalshi as unresolvable in its current form.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves based on relative price movement. Market resolves YES (Up) if March 26 closing price is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close, NO (Down) if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. This is a binary comparative framework with a single, unambiguous outcome per event.Kalshi:
Outlier: Attempts to resolve based on 60 separate absolute price-level thresholds (20999.99 through 26899.99), each stating 'If end-of-day NDX is above [threshold], then resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility: every possible NDX close above the lowest threshold (20999.99) satisfies multiple conditions simultaneously, and no condition provides a NO resolution path. The market cannot resolve to NO under any circumstance.
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