TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 25? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$11,757
23,900 or above 100%
24,100 or above 100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 25? 100%
Closed: Mar 25, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 25, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers multiple absolute price level thresholds. Both use official Nasdaq closing prices as the settlement source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price comparison while Kalshi uses absolute price level thresholds. These represent two distinct settlement value frameworks that will not necessarily align on the same outcome.Hero Tip:
Understand which market matches your thesis: Polymarket rewards directional bets on whether NDX moves up or down from March 24 close, while Kalshi rewards bets on NDX reaching specific absolute price levels. The two can diverge significantly if the prior trading day close is far from Kalshi thresholds.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative movement framework. Resolves Up if March 25 close > March 24 close (or most recent prior trading day if March 24 is a holiday). Resolves Down if March 25 close < March 24 close. Resolves 50-50 if prices are exactly equal or if NDX does not trade during regular session. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source.Kalshi:
Absolute price level framework. Offers 60 separate binary Yes/No conditions, each resolving Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 25 is above a specific threshold (21099.99 through 26999.99 in 100-point increments). All conditions resolve to the same Yes outcome if the threshold is breached; No otherwise. No explicit tie or no-trade provision stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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