TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 24? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 24, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day directional movement (Up/Down/Flat) compared to the prior trading day's close, while Kalshi contains 60 separate markets each with fixed absolute price thresholds, creating a logical contradiction where a single NDX closing price on March 24 cannot simultaneously satisfy Polymarket's relative logic and Kalshi's absolute threshold logic in a coherent group.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as a unified event group. Polymarket bets on directional movement (will NDX close higher than March 23?), while Kalshi bets on absolute price levels (will NDX close above 21899.99?). A YES on Kalshi does not imply YES on Polymarket—the outcomes are independent. Arbitrage risk exists if you assume they resolve together.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on relative day-over-day price movement. Market resolves UP if March 24 close > March 23 close, DOWN if March 24 close < March 23 close, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on 60 independent absolute price thresholds. Each of the 60 markets resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on March 24 exceeds a specific fixed level (ranging from 20799.99 to 26699.99), and NO otherwise. No relative comparison to prior day. Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 24, 2026 is above 21899.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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