TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 2? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$132,811
24,300 or above 100%
24,200 or above 100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 2? 100%
Closed: Mar 2, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on Monday, March 2, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific absolute price thresholds on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible market structures: Polymarket is a relative binary (Up/Down/Tie), while Kalshi offers 60 absolute price-level binaries. They measure different settlement values and cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket requires prior-day close data; Kalshi requires only absolute March 2 close. Verify your platform's data source before settlement. No direct arbitrage exists between them.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative day-over-day binary. Resolves Up if March 2 NDX close exceeds the most recent prior trading day close, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as official source. Handles edge cases: shortened sessions use official close, trading halts use last valid on-exchange trade, no trading resolves 50-50.Kalshi:
60 independent absolute price-level binaries. Each resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 2 exceeds a specific threshold (21999.99 to 27899.99). All thresholds are evaluated against the same single closing price. No relative comparison; no tie resolution; no prior-day reference.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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