TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 17? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$31,090
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 17? 100%
24,500 or above 100%
24,700 or above 100%
Closed: Mar 17, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 17, 2026 compared to the previous trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute closing price thresholds. The markets measure the same underlying asset but employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses relative price movement (vs prior trading day close) while Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds. The two frameworks measure different phenomena and will not resolve consistently even with identical underlying price data.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket isolates intraday momentum; Kalshi isolates absolute price level achievement. Verify your thesis matches the resolution method before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative movement framework. Resolves Up if NDX close on March 17, 2026 exceeds the most recent prior trading day close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses WSJ Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price.Kalshi:
Absolute threshold framework. Resolves Yes if end-of-day NDX on March 17, 2026 is above any of 60 specified price thresholds (21299.99 through 27199.99). No explicit No condition, prior-day reference, or source specification provided. Appears to be a ladder of binary outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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