TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11?

polymarket

kalshi

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11?

Volume:

$35,547

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11?

- Polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 12, 2026

Closed: Mar 11, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$27,788

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,966

N/A

N/A

$3,529

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$352

N/A

N/A

$10

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$319

N/A

N/A

$53

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$229

N/A

N/A

$11

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$210

N/A

N/A

$210

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,800 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$116

N/A

N/A

$83

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$89

N/A

N/A

$89

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,600 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$66

N/A

N/A

$41

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$51

N/A

N/A

$51

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,700 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$20

N/A

N/A

$20

Settled

Yes

kalshi

24,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1

N/A

N/A

$1

Settled

Yes

kalshi

25,000 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$485

N/A

N/A

$182

Settled

No

kalshi

26,000 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$423

N/A

N/A

$423

Settled

No

kalshi

25,400 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$148

N/A

N/A

$115

Settled

No

kalshi

25,100 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$112

N/A

N/A

$70

Settled

No

kalshi

25,300 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$46

N/A

N/A

$46

Settled

No

kalshi

25,700 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$45

N/A

N/A

$42

Settled

No

kalshi

25,500 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$41

N/A

N/A

$41

Settled

No

kalshi

25,800 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$33

N/A

N/A

$33

Settled

No

kalshi

25,200 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$7

N/A

N/A

$7

Settled

No

kalshi

26,100 or above

N/A

N/A

—

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

kalshi

25,900 or above

N/A

N/A

—

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

kalshi

22,100 or above

N/A

N/A

—

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

23,000 or above

N/A

N/A

—

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 11, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price level thresholds. Both markets reference the official end-of-day closing price from the Nasdaq 100 Index.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally incompatible resolution architectures. Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day movement (binary Up/Down), while Kalshi resolves on 60 independent absolute price level thresholds. These cannot be unified into a single settlement outcome, and the markets will produce logically independent results.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate instruments. Polymarket is a directional bet requiring knowledge of the March 10 close; Kalshi is a level-based bet requiring only the March 11 close. A Polymarket Up outcome does not guarantee any specific Kalshi outcome, and vice versa. Arbitrage is not possible between these two market types.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Relative comparison market. Resolves Up if March 11 NDX close > March 10 (or most recent prior trading day) close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Kalshi: Absolute level threshold market. Contains 60 separate binary Yes/No conditions, each triggered if end-of-day NDX on March 11 exceeds a specific price point. Price thresholds range from 21899.99 to 27899.99 in 100-point increments. All conditions are independent; multiple can resolve Yes simultaneously. No relative comparison; no prior day reference. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 11, 2026 is above 26099.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.