TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$35,547
24,900 or above 100%
24,200 or above 100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11? 100%
Closed: Mar 11, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) closes higher or lower on March 11, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket uses a relative day-over-day comparison, while Kalshi uses absolute price level thresholds. Both markets reference the official end-of-day closing price from the Nasdaq 100 Index.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ fundamentally incompatible resolution architectures. Polymarket resolves on relative day-over-day movement (binary Up/Down), while Kalshi resolves on 60 independent absolute price level thresholds. These cannot be unified into a single settlement outcome, and the markets will produce logically independent results.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate instruments. Polymarket is a directional bet requiring knowledge of the March 10 close; Kalshi is a level-based bet requiring only the March 11 close. A Polymarket Up outcome does not guarantee any specific Kalshi outcome, and vice versa. Arbitrage is not possible between these two market types.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Relative comparison market. Resolves Up if March 11 NDX close > March 10 (or most recent prior trading day) close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as official source. Handles shortened sessions and trading halts by using last valid on-exchange trade price. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'Kalshi:
Absolute level threshold market. Contains 60 separate binary Yes/No conditions, each triggered if end-of-day NDX on March 11 exceeds a specific price point. Price thresholds range from 21899.99 to 27899.99 in 100-point increments. All conditions are independent; multiple can resolve Yes simultaneously. No relative comparison; no prior day reference. Key Quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 11, 2026 is above 26099.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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