TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 14? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$66,670
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 14? 100%
25,700 or above 100%
25,600 or above 100%
Closed: Apr 14, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on Tuesday, April 14, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. The comparison uses official closing prices from the Wall Street Journal, with the market resolving 50-50 in cases of exact equality, no trading, or data unavailability.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (22 distinct price-level conditions). These frameworks cannot produce identical outcomes for the same April 14, 2026 closing value.Hero Tip:
If you trade this event across both platforms, understand that a single NDX close on April 14 will produce different outcomes: Polymarket cares only whether NDX closes higher or lower than April 11; Kalshi cares whether NDX closes above specific absolute levels (22099.99, 22199.99, etc.). A market that resolves YES on Kalshi (e.g., NDX closes at 25500) may resolve NO on Polymarket if April 11's close was above 25500. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on directional comparison between April 14 closing price and the most recent prior trading day closing price. Market resolves UP if April 14 > prior day, DOWN if April 14 < prior day, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday, April 14, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on 22 distinct absolute price-level thresholds. Every condition resolves YES if end-of-day NDX on April 14 exceeds a specific absolute value (ranging from 22099.99 to 27999.99). No directional comparison to prior trading day is performed. Key quote: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 14, 2026 is above 22399.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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