TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Time left: 06d:22h:49m
World Cup, Iran vs New Zealand, Jun 16, 2026: Iran
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Trade on Limitless
At 52.1¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 52¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
Trade on Predict
At 52¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 52¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 5 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks the outcome of the IR Iran versus New Zealand FIFA World Cup soccer match scheduled for June 15, 2026. Aggregating data from Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, and Predict, the consensus probability favors Iran at 52.0%. Resolution is determined by the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, as sourced from FIFA records. Watch for team news and lineup announcements in the days leading up to the June 15 kickoff, as injuries or tactical changes could shift market sentiment.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation and non-completion logic diverges between platforms. Limitless and Polymarket/Predict treat draw markets inversely to win markets when match is not completed or canceled. Additionally, there is a one-day date discrepancy (June 15 vs June 16, 2026) between platform sources.Hero Tip:
The draw market is the riskiest due to asymmetric cancellation treatment. On Limitless, a draw resolves YES if the match is not completed by July 16, 2026, 01:00 UTC, while win markets resolve NO. On Polymarket and Predict, a draw resolves YES if the match is canceled entirely with no make-up, while win markets resolve NO. Arbitrage or hedge accordingly. Verify the official FIFA match date and monitor for postponements.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
All three outcomes (Iran win, New Zealand win, Draw) resolve to YES if the respective outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or non-completion clause is stated. Match date: June 15, 2026.Limitless:
Iran and New Zealand win markets resolve NO if match is not completed with official result by July 16, 2026, 01:00 UTC. Draw market resolves YES if match is not completed by the same deadline (inverse logic). Match date: June 16, 2026.Polymarket:
Iran and New Zealand win markets resolve NO if match is canceled entirely with no make-up. Draw market resolves YES if match is canceled entirely with no make-up (inverse logic). Match remains open if postponed. Match date: June 15, 2026.Predict:
Iran and New Zealand win markets resolve NO if match is canceled entirely with no make-up. Draw market resolves YES if match is canceled entirely with no make-up (inverse logic). Match remains open if postponed. Match date: June 15, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless operate independently from traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different risk profiles and participant bases. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. Comparing the two reveals arbitrage opportunities and market efficiency gaps. Prediction market odds tend to be more reactive to breaking news and sentiment shifts, whereas sportsbooks may lag due to risk management constraints. Tracking both sources provides a fuller picture of true match expectations.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Limitless serve different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory environments, which can create price discrepancies. Kalshi currently shows while Limitless reflects , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from varying order-book depth, fee structures, user geography, and market-making strategies. Lower liquidity on one platform may also allow larger trades to move prices more dramatically. These gaps typically narrow as the event date approaches and arbitrageurs exploit mispricings.
The IR Iran vs. New Zealand market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 17, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official match result on that date. Traders should monitor team lineups, injury reports, and venue conditions leading up to kickoff, as these factors directly influence final outcome. Market activity typically intensifies in the final hours before resolution as new information emerges and positions are settled.
Key catalysts for IR Iran vs. New Zealand include player injuries or roster changes, official team announcements, weather conditions at the venue, and recent form or head-to-head history. Geopolitical developments or travel disruptions could also impact team preparation and confidence. Media coverage, expert analysis, and betting syndicate activity often signal shifting market expectations. Live team training footage, press conferences, and lineup confirmations in the days before the match typically drive final price adjustments. Monitor social media and sports news outlets for breaking updates that could reshape odds.
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