TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 1? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$44,841
above $4730 100%
above $4680 100%
above $4670 100%
Closed: Apr 1, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the closing price of gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-minute candlestick at 5 PM EDT on April 1, 2026 will close above a specified threshold. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the settlement price exceeds the trigger level, and implicitly to 'No' if it closes at or below that level. This is a price-at-event settlement structure with multiple strike levels across platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES if the 1-minute close price at 5 PM EDT on April 1, 2026 exceeds any of 50 specified price thresholds (ranging from $4370 to $4860), while Polymarket resolves based on a day-over-day price comparison: YES if April 1's close is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close, NO if lower, and 50-50 if equal or no trading occurs.Hero Tip:
These are two completely different markets. Kalshi is a binary bet on whether gold closes above specific price levels on April 1, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. Polymarket is a directional bet comparing April 1's close to the previous trading day's close. A YES outcome on one platform does not guarantee a YES outcome on the other. For example, if gold closes at $4500 on April 1 and $4450 on March 31, Kalshi resolves YES (price above $4370 threshold) but Polymarket also resolves YES (up from prior day). However, if gold closes at $4500 on April 1 and $4600 on March 31, Kalshi resolves YES but Polymarket resolves NO (down from prior day). Traders must understand which market they are trading on.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick at 5 PM EDT on April 1, 2026 exceeds any of 50 specified absolute price thresholds. The lowest threshold is $4370 and the highest is $4860. Resolution is based solely on whether the April 1 close price is above one of these fixed price levels, with no reference to prior trading day prices or relative movement. Key quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 01, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above $4370, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the close price on April 1, 2026 is higher than the close price on the most recent prior trading day; resolves NO if lower; resolves 50-50 if equal, if no trading occurs, or if April 1 is not a trading day. Resolution is based on day-over-day relative price comparison using Pyth data, not on absolute price thresholds. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on April 1, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.