TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Time left: 18d:01h:19m
Will Mexico finish first in World Cup Group A?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution
Trade on Predict
At 56.5¢ buys you 177 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $177 | Net Profit: $77 Multiplier: 1.77x | ROI: 77% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 56¢ buys you 179 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $179 | Net Profit: $79 Multiplier: 1.79x | ROI: 79% APY not meaningful 17 days to resolution
Trade on Limitless
At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% APY not meaningful 17 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks which team will finish first in Group A of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, and Limitless, Mexico holds a consensus probability of 57.0% to win the group. Resolution will be determined by Official FIFA records, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary source. Watch the conclusion of the group stage matches on June 27, 2026, when final standings and FIFA's official tiebreak procedures will determine the winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); credible reporting consensus as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when Group A of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage concludes (on or before June 27, 2026)
- The team that finishes first in Group A standings wins; if multiple teams tie on points, FIFA's official tiebreak procedure (goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head record, etc.) determines the winner
- All individual team markets (Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia, etc.) resolve to Yes if that team wins Group A; all others resolve to No
- Catch-all 'Other' or 'Another Team' markets resolve to Yes only if a team not explicitly listed wins Group A
- If Group A is cancelled, postponed beyond September 30, 2026, or no winner is declared by that date, markets resolve to 'Other' or 'No' depending on market structure
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Group Winners: If two or more teams finish with identical points and goal differential, FIFA's official tiebreak procedure (goals scored, head-to-head record, disciplinary record, etc.) determines the sole winner. Markets resolve to that team.
- Group Stage Cancellation or Postponement: If Group A is cancelled or postponed beyond September 30, 2026, markets resolve to 'Other' or 'No' (depending on market type). No winner is declared.
- Playoff Qualifier Reference (Predict Platform): Predict references a playoff between Czechia, Denmark, North Macedonia, and Republic of Ireland. Only the winner of that playoff enters Group A and can win it. This does not create divergence; it is context for which teams are in Group A.
- Multiple Platform Outcomes: Kalshi lists 7 individual Yes/No markets (one per team). Predict, Polymarket, and Limitless offer individual team markets plus 'Other'. All resolve consistently: exactly one team wins Group A.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after June 27, 2026, when the Group A stage concludes and final standings are official. If postponed, resolution deadline is September 30, 2026; after that date with no winner, markets resolve to 'Other' or 'No'.Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless derive odds directly from trader positions and real-money stakes, reflecting live consensus without traditional sportsbook margins. Sportsbooks apply built-in profit margins and may adjust lines based on liability management rather than pure probability. Prediction market odds often respond faster to breaking news, team roster changes, or injury announcements. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter liquidity on certain outcomes and faster settlement. Comparing both sources helps you identify where the market disagrees and where sharp action is concentrated.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, regulatory environments, and liquidity pools. Kalshi may show for one outcome while Limitless reflects , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from varying order-book depth, fee structures, user base composition, and timing of large trades. Some traders specialize on one platform, creating temporary mispricings. Cross-platform monitoring lets you exploit these gaps and understand which venue better reflects informed consensus on Group A's likely winner.
The market resolves on Jun 27, 2026, after all Group A matches conclude during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The outcome is determined by which team finishes in first place in Group A based on final standings—calculated by points earned (wins, draws, losses), goal differential, and goals scored according to FIFA rules. Once the official final Group A table is published by FIFA, the market settles to the winning team. Early resolution may occur if a team is mathematically eliminated before all matches conclude.
Key catalysts include player injuries or suspensions affecting Group A teams, managerial changes, qualifying-round upsets that shift perceived strength, and pre-tournament friendlies revealing form. Betting syndicates and sharp money often move markets on injury news or tactical shifts. Media narratives around team cohesion, travel disruptions, or fixture congestion can trigger repricing. As the tournament approaches, each Group A team's final roster announcement and training-camp reports will influence odds. During group play itself, early match results dramatically reshape probabilities, with wins and losses immediately reflected across Kalshi and Limitless.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.