TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) prices move up or down on March 9, 2026. Kalshi offers 43 binary markets, each with a different price threshold ($67.99–$109.99), all resolving Yes if the front-month settle price exceeds that threshold. Polymarket offers a single relative-movement market that resolves Up or Down based on whether March 9's settlement price is higher or lower than the previous trading day's settlement price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different things: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price movement. Both reference the same CME settlement price source but apply different resolution logic.Hero Tip:
These markets serve different trading strategies. Kalshi's threshold markets are ideal for directional bets at specific price levels; Polymarket's relative market is ideal for momentum or reversal trades. Do not assume one market's outcome predicts the other's. For example, oil could settle at $74.50 on March 9 (winning Kalshi's $72.99 and $73.99 contracts but losing the $74.99 contract) while simultaneously moving down from the prior day (losing Polymarket's Up contract).Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
43 separate binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold. Resolution: Yes if front-month WTI settle price on March 9, 2026 exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from $67.99 to $109.99). Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 09, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' All 43 markets are independent; multiple can resolve Yes simultaneously if the settle price is high enough.Polymarket:
Single binary market measuring relative daily movement. Resolution: Up if March 9 settle price is higher than the previous trading day's settle price for the active month contract; Down if lower. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.' Uses the same CME source but compares day-over-day change, not absolute levels.
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