TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?

kalshi

polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?

Volume:

$992,164

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?

- Polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 10, 2026

Closed: Mar 9, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$654,637

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$91 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$12,089

N/A

N/A

$7,870

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$93 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$8,828

N/A

N/A

$6,025

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$94 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,746

N/A

N/A

$3,510

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$92 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6,539

N/A

N/A

$4,822

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$87 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,405

N/A

N/A

$2,798

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$85 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,283

N/A

N/A

$2,527

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$90 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,340

N/A

N/A

$1,668

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$80 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,010

N/A

N/A

$1,010

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$89 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$978

N/A

N/A

$726

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$82 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$619

N/A

N/A

$445

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$86 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$443

N/A

N/A

$337

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$70 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$384

N/A

N/A

$379

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$69 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$260

N/A

N/A

$260

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$83 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$183

N/A

N/A

$170

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$88 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$151

N/A

N/A

$151

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$75 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$76 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$100

N/A

N/A

$50

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$84 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$36

N/A

N/A

$36

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$81 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$20

N/A

N/A

$20

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$68 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$6

N/A

N/A

$6

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$72 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5

N/A

N/A

$5

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$78 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5

N/A

N/A

$5

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$71 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4

N/A

N/A

$2

Settled

Yes

kalshi

$105 or above

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$67,915

N/A

N/A

$23,693

Settled

No

Total markets: 25 of 44

Description

This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) prices move up or down on March 9, 2026. Kalshi offers 43 binary markets, each with a different price threshold ($67.99–$109.99), all resolving Yes if the front-month settle price exceeds that threshold. Polymarket offers a single relative-movement market that resolves Up or Down based on whether March 9's settlement price is higher or lower than the previous trading day's settlement price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different things: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day price movement. Both reference the same CME settlement price source but apply different resolution logic.Hero tip: These markets serve different trading strategies. Kalshi's threshold markets are ideal for directional bets at specific price levels; Polymarket's relative market is ideal for momentum or reversal trades. Do not assume one market's outcome predicts the other's. For example, oil could settle at $74.50 on March 9 (winning Kalshi's $72.99 and $73.99 contracts but losing the $74.99 contract) while simultaneously moving down from the prior day (losing Polymarket's Up contract).

Critical divergence points:

Kalshi: 43 separate binary markets, each with an absolute price threshold. Resolution: Yes if front-month WTI settle price on March 9, 2026 exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from $67.99 to $109.99). Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 09, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' All 43 markets are independent; multiple can resolve Yes simultaneously if the settle price is high enough.
Polymarket: Single binary market measuring relative daily movement. Resolution: Up if March 9 settle price is higher than the previous trading day's settle price for the active month contract; Down if lower. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.' Uses the same CME source but compares day-over-day change, not absolute levels.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.