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$134.1b

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$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

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$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 24?
kalshi
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 24?

Volume:
$503,979

$91 or above

 - Kalshi

$91 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Closed: Mar 24, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$141,490
N/A
N/A
$54,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$92 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112,954
N/A
N/A
$42,091
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 24?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$93 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,641
N/A
N/A
$36,376
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,653
N/A
N/A
$15,915
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,015
N/A
N/A
$23,686
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,930
N/A
N/A
$11,734
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,329
N/A
N/A
$8,381
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,271
N/A
N/A
$6,609
Settled
No
kalshi

$98 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,200
N/A
N/A
$7,498
Settled
No
kalshi

$99 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,891
N/A
N/A
$7,525
Settled
No
kalshi

$104 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,588
N/A
N/A
$4,553
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,740
N/A
N/A
$4,584
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,621
N/A
N/A
$5,314
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,274
N/A
N/A
$3,445
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,284
N/A
N/A
$3,277
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether the front-month settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will close above specific price thresholds on March 24, 2026. The Kalshi platform offers 15 distinct binary markets, each with a different price strike level ranging from $90.99 to $104.99 per barrel. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement ambiguity between platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on whether the settlement price exceeds specific dollar thresholds (15 different price levels), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price movement (up or down relative to the previous trading day). These are incompatible frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero tip: If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels being exceeded, while Polymarket bets on directional movement from the prior day. A price of $97.50 would resolve YES on Kalshi (exceeds $96.99, $90.99, $93.99, $95.99, and other thresholds) but could resolve NO on Polymarket if March 23's settlement was higher. Do not assume the same bet works identically across both platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settlement price on March 24, 2026 exceeds any of 15 specified dollar thresholds ranging from $90.99 to $104.99. The market structure implies multiple YES outcomes depending on which threshold is breached, creating ambiguity about the actual binary outcome. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 24, 2026 is above $96.99, then the market resolves to Yes' (and 14 other similar conditions at different price levels).
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves YES ('Up') if the March 24, 2026 CME settlement price for the active-month CL futures contract is higher than the previous trading day's settlement price for the same contract; resolves NO ('Down') if lower. Resolution is based purely on day-over-day directional movement, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.