TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 24? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$503,979
$91 or above 100%
$92 or above 100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 24? 100%
Closed: Mar 24, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the front-month settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will close above specific price thresholds on March 24, 2026. The Kalshi platform offers 15 distinct binary markets, each with a different price strike level ranging from $90.99 to $104.99 per barrel. Polymarket's specific rules are unavailable, creating potential settlement ambiguity between platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on whether the settlement price exceeds specific dollar thresholds (15 different price levels), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price movement (up or down relative to the previous trading day). These are incompatible frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels being exceeded, while Polymarket bets on directional movement from the prior day. A price of $97.50 would resolve YES on Kalshi (exceeds $96.99, $90.99, $93.99, $95.99, and other thresholds) but could resolve NO on Polymarket if March 23's settlement was higher. Do not assume the same bet works identically across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settlement price on March 24, 2026 exceeds any of 15 specified dollar thresholds ranging from $90.99 to $104.99. The market structure implies multiple YES outcomes depending on which threshold is breached, creating ambiguity about the actual binary outcome. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 24, 2026 is above $96.99, then the market resolves to Yes' (and 14 other similar conditions at different price levels).Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves YES ('Up') if the March 24, 2026 CME settlement price for the active-month CL futures contract is higher than the previous trading day's settlement price for the same contract; resolves NO ('Down') if lower. Resolution is based purely on day-over-day directional movement, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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