TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 18, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if, on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. This market will resolve to "Down" if, on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is lower than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. If CME does not publish the settlement price for the listed trading day by 11:59 PM ET of the next trading day, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the Active Month changes between the previous trading day and Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the market will continue using the same contract month used on the previous trading day for the purposes of determining whether the settlement price moved up or down. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logic. Kalshi resolves based on whether the settlement price exceeds specific dollar thresholds (15 different price levels), while Polymarket resolves based on day-over-day price movement (up or down relative to the previous trading day). These are incompatible frameworks that will produce different outcomes for the same underlying price data.Hero Tip:
If you trade this market, understand which platform you are on: Kalshi bets on absolute price levels (e.g., will WTI close above $90.99?), while Polymarket bets on directional movement (e.g., will WTI close higher than March 17?). A price of $92.50 resolves YES on Kalshi (exceeds multiple thresholds) but could resolve NO on Polymarket if March 17 closed at $93.00. Do not assume the same bet works identically across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the front-month WTI settlement price on March 18, 2026 exceeds any of 15 specific dollar thresholds ranging from $86.99 to $100.99. The market does not specify a single threshold; instead, it lists 15 independent conditions, each of which independently triggers a YES resolution. Key quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 18, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes' (repeated 15 times with different thresholds).Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves YES (Up) if the March 18, 2026 front-month settlement price is higher than the March 17, 2026 front-month settlement price; resolves NO (Down) if lower. Resolution is based on day-over-day directional movement, not absolute price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price for the same Active Month contract.'
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