TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
k
p
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 16? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$636,193
$89 or above 100%
k
$92 or above 100%
k
$93 or above 100%
k
Closed: Mar 16, 10:00 AM EST
k
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) futures will close higher or lower on March 16, 2026. Kalshi offers 15 separate binary markets, each with a fixed price threshold, while Polymarket offers a single relative-change market comparing March 16's settlement to the prior trading day's settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different outcomes: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds across 15 distinct markets, while Polymarket uses a single relative day-over-day comparison. Both source from CME official settlement prices, but the resolution logic and market structure diverge.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets are threshold-based bets on absolute WTI price levels on March 16. Polymarket is a directional bet (up vs. down from March 15). These are not interchangeable. To hedge or arbitrage, you must know the March 15 settlement price and your conviction on the absolute March 16 level. A price of $95.50 would lose all Kalshi markets (all thresholds are higher) but could win or lose Polymarket depending on March 15's close.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
15 separate binary markets, each with a fixed absolute price threshold ranging from $88.99 to $102.99. Resolution: Yes if front-month WTI settle price on March 16, 2026 exceeds the threshold; No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 16, 2026 is above $[threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Single binary market (Up/Down) comparing March 16 settle price to March 15 settle price. Resolution: Up if March 16 > March 15; Down if March 16 < March 15. If no change or CME fails to publish by 11:59 PM ET next day, resolves 50-50. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if, on Monday, March 16, 2026, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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