TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Men's 5000m Short Track Speed Skating relay at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Kalshi offers a binary YES/NO market on whether any of eight specified countries (Canada, China PR, Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Korea Republic, Belgium, Japan) wins a medal. Polymarket offers multiple binary markets on which country will win the gold medal, with named countries and placeholder options.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different outcomes: Kalshi triggers on any medal (gold, silver, or bronze) for eight named countries, while Polymarket markets resolve only on gold medal winners across a broader set of named countries plus placeholders. This creates a fundamental scope mismatch where a silver or bronze medalist could resolve YES on Kalshi but NO on all Polymarket markets.Hero Tip:
Before trading, confirm your market intent: are you betting on medal inclusion (any color) or specifically gold? A country winning silver or bronze will satisfy Kalshi but fail all Polymarket gold-only markets. Cross-reference official IOC results at olympics.com to identify the exact medal color and winning country. If a Kalshi-listed country wins non-gold, Kalshi resolves YES while Polymarket gold markets for that country resolve NO.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Binary YES/NO on whether any of eight countries (Canada, China PR, Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Korea Republic, Belgium, Japan) wins ANY medal (gold, silver, or bronze). Resolves YES if any listed country earns any podium position. No distinction between medal colors.Polymarket:
Multiple binary markets, each asking if a specific country wins the GOLD medal only. Includes 15 named countries (USA, France, Japan, Latvia, Hungary, Canada, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Kazakhstan, Korea, Poland, Turkey, China, Bulgaria) plus 15 placeholder options. Each market resolves YES only if that country wins gold; resolves NO if eliminated or does not win gold; resolves Other if event postponed after 31-Mar-2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or no gold declared by deadline.
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