TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers prediction markets for the Women's Ski Halfpipe gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Markets are offered on both Polymarket (individual participant binary contracts) and Kalshi (multi-outcome resolution conditions), with overlapping but distinct participant rosters and resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Participant roster divergence with naming inconsistencies and scope differences. Polymarket includes 9 placeholder slots and explicit catch-all; Kalshi lists 20 fixed athletes with no published fallback. Name variants (Liu/Lu, Kathryn/Kate Gray) create potential matching ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Verify athlete names and final Olympic roster against IOC official entries by Q4 2025. On Polymarket, monitor placeholder resolution logic—if a placeholder athlete wins, that specific market resolves Yes. On Kalshi, if the gold medalist is not among the 20 named athletes, the market may resolve to No or remain unresolved pending platform clarification. Arbitrage opportunity exists if Kalshi's fixed list omits a likely medalist.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
32 binary markets: 20 named athletes (Kelly Sildaru EST, Li Fangui CHN, Cassie Sharpe CAN, Rachael Karker CAN, Abby Winterberger USA, Riley Jacobs USA, Mischa Thomas NZL, Indra Brown AUS, Kexin Zhang CHN, Amy Fraser CAN, Dillan Glennie CAN, Yishan Lu CHN, Eileen Gu CHN, Zoe Atkin GBR, Svea Irving USA, Kate Gray USA) plus 9 placeholder slots (Placeholder 3–15) plus 1 catch-all (someone else). Resolution per IOC official records at olympics.com; hard deadline March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; post-ceremony disqualifications ignored; ties resolved alphabetically by listed name; postponement/cancellation after deadline resolves to Other.Kalshi:
21 binary resolution conditions tied to 20 named athletes (Svea Irving USA, Rachael Karker CAN, Dillan Glennie CAN, Cassie Sharpe CAN, Zoe Atkin GBR, Kexin Zhang CHN, Kelly Sildaru EST, Kathryn Gray USA, Fanghui Li CHN, Ailing Eileen Gu CHN, Yujin Jang KOR, Sabrina Cakmakli TUR, Riley Jacobs USA, Piper Arnold USA, Mischa Thomas NZL, Grete-Mia Meentalo FIN, Amy Fraser CAN, Yishan Liu CHN, Nanaho Kiriyama JPN, Indra Brown AUS, Daeun Kim KOR). No published deadline, catch-all, or post-ceremony amendment clause. No explicit tie-breaking rule.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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