TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March. For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources and timing. Polymarket resolves on CME Silver futures settlement price (final trading day of March), while Kalshi resolves on the open silver price at 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026. These are distinct data sources that may produce different outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
If you trade across both platforms, understand that your YES/NO outcome on Polymarket may not match Kalshi. Polymarket uses official CME settlement (which may occur before March 31 if it is not a trading day), while Kalshi locks in the 5 PM EDT open price on March 31 specifically. Silver price movements between these two reference points could cause divergent resolutions.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of March 2026. If the final trading day is shortened or no settlement is published, uses the most recent published settlement during March. Quote: 'Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered... This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves on the open silver price at 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026 specifically. All 40 markets use this single reference point and time, with no fallback or adjustment for market holidays or shortened trading days. Quote: 'If the open silver price for March 31, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is between [range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
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