TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$61,312
At least 25 million 100%
At least 9 million 100%
Bridgerton: Season 4 100%
Closed: Mar 2, 7:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which show ranks #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as of the chart published on March 3, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official viewership data for that specific date, with Kalshi using view-count thresholds and Polymarket using direct show-name predictions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's 11 conditions all resolve to the same outcome (Yes) based solely on view thresholds, without identifying which show is #1. This creates a logical contradiction: the market cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes for multiple independent view-count conditions while also determining a single top show. Polymarket correctly structures the resolution as mutually exclusive show-name predictions.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's markets suffer from a fundamental design flaw: they measure viewership magnitude but not show identity. Since Netflix's #1 show will have exactly one view count, all 11 Kalshi conditions will either all resolve Yes or all resolve No depending on whether that count exceeds 6 million (the lowest threshold). This makes Kalshi's markets non-informative and potentially unresolvable. Polymarket's approach is correct: exactly one show will be #1, and exactly one of its 19 markets (including the catch-all "Other") will resolve Yes. Only trade Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
11 independent markets, each triggering Yes if the #1 show's view count meets a specific threshold (6M, 9M, 12M, 15M, 18M, 21M, 25M, 30M, 35M, 40M, or 50M views). All conditions reference the same chart (Mar 3, 2026) and the same #1 show, meaning all 11 will resolve identically. The market does not specify which show is #1, only that it has sufficient views.Polymarket:
19 mutually exclusive markets predicting which specific show will rank #1 (e.g., 'Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model', 'Bridgerton: Season 4', 'The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4', etc., plus 'Other'). Exactly one will resolve Yes based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on Mar 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Resolution source is explicit and singular.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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