TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$107,266,600
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,176,258,675
332,550
Markets across
33,140
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,150
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
'%3e%3ccircle%20cx='26'%20cy='26'%20r='26'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23fff'%20d='M27.6629%2037.9855L31.004%2037.6925L32.1989%2051.3689C33.72%2051.027%2035.2073%2050.5486%2036.6425%2049.9395V37.8085H40.7697V47.7178C42.4942%2046.577%2044.0775%2045.236%2045.4865%2043.7226L46.0172%2037.6591L49.5548%2037.9678C51.5707%2034.0725%2052.5697%2029.7306%2052.4591%2025.3456C52.3484%2020.9605%2051.1317%2016.6746%2048.9219%2012.886L48.7903%2014.392L44.6631%2014.0303L45.1937%207.97067C43.8569%206.58147%2042.3706%205.34447%2040.7619%204.28222V14.2406H36.6347V2.06247C34.8743%201.313%2033.0358%200.762345%2031.1533%200.420753L32.3463%2014.0637L29.0052%2014.3566L27.7513%200.0314647C27.3308%200.0118035%2026.9062%200%2026.4817%200C24.8262%204.44017e-06%2023.1745%200.157349%2021.5487%200.469906L23.9072%2013.8985L21.364%2014.3468L19.0253%201.0853C16.8454%201.73668%2014.7611%202.67345%2012.8266%203.87129L15.4601%2013.7019L13.4634%2014.2387L11.0146%205.09226C9.12509%206.49278%207.43337%208.1422%205.98527%209.99577L7.26077%2013.5014L5.80446%2014.0322L4.88665%2011.5097C3.41845%2013.6953%202.29182%2016.092%201.54558%2018.6172L1.95829%2018.4678L7.2647%2033.0387L5.80839%2033.5696L1.06407%2020.5303C-0.0225105%2025.6016%200.430464%2030.8821%202.36486%2035.6941C4.29926%2040.5061%207.62683%2044.6301%2011.9206%2047.5369L9.45605%2038.3355L11.4528%2037.7987L14.4677%2049.0567C16.5333%2050.1354%2018.7355%2050.9291%2021.0142%2051.4161L18.6892%2038.1605L21.2343%2037.7122L23.7283%2051.8683C24.6462%2051.9654%2025.5686%2052.014%2026.4916%2052.0138C27.2954%2052.0138%2028.0933%2051.9764%2028.8795%2051.9037L27.6629%2037.9855Z'%20/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20d='M46.0368%2018.1276L50.1542%2018.4875L48.804%2033.9372L44.6768%2033.5774L46.0368%2018.1276ZM36.6484%2018.279H40.7756V33.7858H36.6484V18.279ZM31.0099%2018.1611L32.3601%2033.6109L29.019%2033.9038L27.6668%2018.454L31.0099%2018.1611ZM13.481%2033.7898L9.4698%2018.8099L11.4666%2018.2751L15.4778%2033.2452L13.481%2033.7898ZM21.3817%2033.892L18.6892%2018.6211L21.2343%2018.1729L23.9248%2033.4418L21.3817%2033.892Z'%20/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
Next James Bond actor?
No Bond chosen
- Polymarket
No Bond chosen - Polymarket
100%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
No volume data
Aug 19
Aug 26
Vol.
$0.0
·
Closed: Jul 1, 3:24 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether an actor will be officially announced as the next James Bond by June 30, 2026. Across Polymarket and Opinion, the consensus probability that no announcement occurs by the deadline stands at 98.3%. Resolution is determined by official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios, with major entertainment news outlets serving as secondary confirmation. Watch for any official studio statement or credible media reports of a casting decision before the June 30, 2026 announcement window closes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution logic: first official announcement of next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with Amazon MGM Studios as primary source and credible media consensus as secondary validation.Primary resolution logic: Amazon MGM Studios official announcement; credible reporting consensus (e.g., major entertainment news outlets) as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs upon the first official announcement of the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- If a specific named candidate is announced, that candidate's market resolves YES and all others resolve NO
- If a woman is announced, the woman category resolves YES and specific candidate markets resolve based on the announcement
- If an actor not listed as a named candidate is announced, Someone else resolves YES
- If no announcement occurs by deadline, No one announced as next James Bond resolves YES
- Categorical markets (woman, someone else, no one) are mutually exclusive with specific candidate outcomes
- Any changes or reversals after the first announcement do not affect resolution
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Multiple simultaneous announcements: The first official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios takes precedence; if timing is ambiguous, credible reporting consensus determines which announcement is primary
- Placeholder candidates: Placeholder questions (Placeholder 7-20) serve as catch-all slots for potential candidates not explicitly named; they resolve YES only if an unnamed candidate matching that slot is announced
- Woman candidate announcement: If a female candidate is announced, both the woman category market and any specific candidate market for that woman resolve YES
- No announcement by deadline: If June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET passes without an official announcement, No one announced resolves YES and all candidate-specific markets resolve NO
- Pierce Brosnan or Henry Cavill re-casting: These former Bond actors are included as candidates; if either is officially announced as the next Bond, their market resolves YES despite prior Bond tenure
Polymarket
This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Opinion may show different odds for the same casting outcome due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One platform might attract more casual bettors while the other draws professional traders, shifting the price. Liquidity imbalances mean a large trade on one venue can move odds more sharply than on another. Settlement rules or candidate definitions could also be interpreted slightly differently across platforms. Savvy traders monitor these spreads and arbitrage gaps, gradually aligning prices—but temporary divergence is normal and creates trading opportunities.
Major catalysts include studio statements, director or producer interviews hinting at casting direction, and actor availability announcements. Franchise leadership changes or shifts in creative vision can reshape odds significantly. Social media campaigns or fan petitions occasionally influence studio decisions and trader sentiment. Industry trade reports about contract negotiations or screen tests move prices sharply. Competing casting news from rival studios may redirect attention and capital. Economic factors—box office performance of recent Bond films or actor box-office appeal—also weigh on trader conviction. Any credible reporting linking a specific actor to formal negotiations typically triggers immediate repricing across this market.
