TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$27,265
At least 12 million 99%
At least 6 million 99%
War Machine 100%
Closed: Mar 16, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank as #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending March 17, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the identity of the top-ranked movie based on Netflix's official viewership data published on March 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on viewership thresholds (quantitative); Polymarket resolves on movie identity (categorical). Both reference the same Netflix chart published March 17, 2026, but measure different attributes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi YES and Polymarket YES are the same outcome. Kalshi YES means the #1 movie hit a view threshold; Polymarket YES means a specific movie is #1. A movie can be #1 (Polymarket YES) but still fail Kalshi if views are below 6M, or pass Kalshi (YES) but lose Polymarket if it is not your backed movie. Monitor Netflix's official chart independently and cross-reference both conditions before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
11 binary markets, each tied to a view-count threshold (6M, 9M, 12M, 15M, 18M, 21M, 25M, 30M, 35M, 40M, 50M). All resolve YES if the #1 movie meets or exceeds the stated threshold on the March 17, 2026 chart. No explicit NO outcome; implied NO if views fall below threshold. Quote: 'If the #1 Movie on Netflix has at least X million views on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
19 binary markets, each asking whether a specific movie (Movie C, Movie A, Nobody 2, Jurassic World Rebirth, War Machine, etc.) will be the #1 global Netflix movie. Resolves YES if that movie is ranked #1; NO if any other movie is #1; Other if Netflix fails to publish by March 20, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Quote: 'This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only).'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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