TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Apr 27, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 Global Movies list published at top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which movie ranks #1 on Netflix's official global Top 10 movies chart for the week ending April 28, 2026
- Ranking is based on total views globally for English-language movies only
- The chart reflects viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
- Kalshi resolves Yes if any of its 11 listed movies ranks #1; Polymarket resolves Yes for the specific movie that ranks #1, or to 'Other' if none of its listed movies rank #1
- Both platforms use the same publication date and time as the authoritative resolution moment
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Netflix fails to publish update: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 update by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario but would likely resolve to No across all markets if the data source is unavailable.
- Tie for #1 position: Neither platform explicitly addresses a tie scenario. Standard practice would treat the first-listed or highest-ranked movie as #1, but this should be clarified with platforms.
- Movie not on Netflix or removed: If a listed movie is not available on Netflix or is removed before April 28, 2026, it cannot rank #1 and those markets resolve to No.
- Unlisted movie ranks #1: If a movie not listed on either platform ranks #1, Kalshi markets all resolve to No, and Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 'another movie' depending on market structure.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 Global Movies chart. Final deadline for publication is May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Related events
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