TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes generic placeholder shows (Show C through Show K) and an 'Other' catch-all option, while Kalshi provides a specific curated list of named shows without a catch-all. This creates scope divergence: Polymarket's market structure allows resolution to 'Other' if the #2 show is not explicitly listed, whereas Kalshi's binary outcomes assume one of its 15 named shows will be #2.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket and the #2 show turns out to be an unlisted title, your market resolves to 'Other' (option 20). On Kalshi, if the #2 show is not in their curated list, the market cannot resolve YES to any option—creating potential ambiguity. Stick to named shows (Age of Attraction, Bridgerton, Virgin River, etc.) that appear on both platforms to avoid cross-platform settlement risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the market with 22 options including 7 placeholder shows (Show C through Show K), a generic 'Other' catch-all (option 20), and 14 named shows. The market explicitly states 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.' This allows resolution to 'Other' if the #2 show is not in the named list.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi provides exactly 15 binary YES/NO outcomes tied to specific named shows (Age of Attraction, Derrick Stroup, Love is Blind, Virgin River, A Friend a Murderer, Bridgerton, The Dinosaurs, ONE PIECE, The TikTok Killer, MLB Opening Night, Beauty in Black, Raw: 2026, Dynasty: The Murdochs, Mark Rober's CrunchLabs, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen). No catch-all or 'Other' option is defined; if the #2 show is not in this list, the resolution mechanism is unclear.
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