TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
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600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$127,568
Bridgerton: Season 4 6%
Bridgerton: Season 4 0%
The Dinosaurs 100%
Closed: Mar 9, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending March 9, 2026, based on the official update published on March 10, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's published rankings on top10.netflix.com as of the March 10, 2026 update.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the same official source (Netflix Top 10 US TV shows chart published March 10, 2026) and resolve on which single show ranks #2 by total viewership.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 TV shows ranking published on top10.netflix.com on March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).Core resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET (Netflix's standard Tuesday update).
- Resolution metric is total views in the United States for TV shows only, as reported by Netflix.
- The show ranked in position #2 on the published chart is the winner; all other outcomes resolve to No.
- Polymarket includes a fallback: if the update does not occur by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Kalshi does not explicitly state a fallback procedure if the update fails to publish; this is a minor procedural gap but does not affect the primary resolution logic.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Update Failure or Delay: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other' if top10.netflix.com does not publish the update by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi's resolution procedure in this scenario is not documented; traders should assume Kalshi would follow Netflix's next available official update or may resolve to 'No' for all outcomes.
- Tie or Co-Ranking: Netflix's official rankings do not typically show ties; if Netflix publishes a tie at #2, the market operator (Polymarket or Kalshi) would need to clarify whether both shows resolve to Yes or if Netflix's internal ordering is used as a tiebreaker. This is unlikely but not explicitly addressed.
- Show Name Variations: Polymarket lists some shows with placeholder names (Show A–K) while Kalshi lists specific titles (e.g., 'Bridgerton: Season 4', 'The Night Agent: Season 3'). Both platforms include 'Bridgerton: Season 4' and 'The Night Agent: Season 3' as named outcomes, confirming alignment on these titles. Placeholder shows on Polymarket should be interpreted as 'any other show not explicitly named'.
- Scope: TV Shows Only: Netflix's Top 10 includes both TV shows and films. Resolution is based on the TV shows ranking only, not the combined or film-only rankings.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 10, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 TV shows update. If the update does not occur by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'; Kalshi's fallback procedure is not specified.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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