TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Dinosaurs
- Polymarket
The Dinosaurs - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 11, 2026
Closed: Mar 9, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model: Season 1
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,137
N/A
N/A
$2,137
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending March 9, 2026, based on the official update published on March 10, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's published rankings on top10.netflix.com as of the March 10, 2026 update.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the same official source (Netflix Top 10 US TV shows chart published March 10, 2026) and resolve on which single show ranks #2 by total viewership.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows ranking published on top10.netflix.com on March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).Core resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET (Netflix's standard Tuesday update).
- Resolution metric is total views in the United States for TV shows only, as reported by Netflix.
- The show ranked in position #2 on the published chart is the winner; all other outcomes resolve to No.
- Polymarket includes a fallback: if the update does not occur by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Kalshi does not explicitly state a fallback procedure if the update fails to publish; this is a minor procedural gap but does not affect the primary resolution logic.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Update Failure or Delay: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other' if top10.netflix.com does not publish the update by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi's resolution procedure in this scenario is not documented; traders should assume Kalshi would follow Netflix's next available official update or may resolve to 'No' for all outcomes.
- Tie or Co-Ranking: Netflix's official rankings do not typically show ties; if Netflix publishes a tie at #2, the market operator (Polymarket or Kalshi) would need to clarify whether both shows resolve to Yes or if Netflix's internal ordering is used as a tiebreaker. This is unlikely but not explicitly addressed.
- Show Name Variations: Polymarket lists some shows with placeholder names (Show A–K) while Kalshi lists specific titles (e.g., 'Bridgerton: Season 4', 'The Night Agent: Season 3'). Both platforms include 'Bridgerton: Season 4' and 'The Night Agent: Season 3' as named outcomes, confirming alignment on these titles. Placeholder shows on Polymarket should be interpreted as 'any other show not explicitly named'.
- Scope: TV Shows Only: Netflix's Top 10 includes both TV shows and films. Resolution is based on the TV shows ranking only, not the combined or film-only rankings.