TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$54,743
Other 100%
Thrash 0%
Roommates 100%
Closed: Apr 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks which movie will rank as the #2 most-watched film on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies list for a given week. Netflix publishes official weekly rankings based on viewing hours, making this a data-driven outcome tied to Netflix's published metrics rather than critical or commercial performance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses a broad catch-all 'Other' category for unspecified movies, while Kalshi provides an exhaustive enumerated list of 16 specific movies with no explicit fallback clause. The two platforms cover different movie universes with partial overlap.Hero Tip:
If you believe the #2 movie will be something not listed on Kalshi (e.g., Movie A, Movie B, Movie C, etc. from Polymarket's generic placeholders), bet 'Other' on Polymarket. On Kalshi, you are restricted to the 16 named titles only—if none of those resolve as #2, the market outcome is undefined. Avoid Kalshi if you expect an unlisted movie to rank #2.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Polymarket offers 22 outcomes including 16 named movies (Jumanji, Beast, Anaconda, Thrash, Black and Blue, Untold: The Death & Life of Lamar Odom, Untold: Jail Blazers, A Quiet Place Part II, The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson) plus 6 generic placeholders (Movie A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) and a catch-all 'Other' category. Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 Movies list published on April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. If the update does not occur by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.Kalshi:
Kalshi provides exactly 16 enumerated Yes/No binary outcomes for specific movies: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, The Fifth Element, Madagascar, KPop Demon Hunters, Thrash, The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson, Beast (English), Anaconda, Black and Blue, Untold: The Death & Life of Lamar Odom, Untold: Jail Blazers, A Gorilla Story: Told By David Attenborough, 180, Him, Roommates, and Ronaldinho: The One and Only. Each market resolves Yes if that specific movie is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on April 21, 2026. No explicit 'Other' or fallback outcome is defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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