TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Other
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Other - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 8, 2026
Closed: Apr 6, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 37
Description
This event group asks which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending April 7, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the same underlying fact: Netflix's official ranking published on April 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, based on global viewership data for the prior week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the identical Netflix official ranking published April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, measuring the same metric (global viewership for the prior week, English-language movies only).Primary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 Global Movies official ranking published at top10.netflix.com on April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix officially ranks as #2 on its Global Top 10 Movies list
- The ranking reflects total global views for the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
- Only English-language movies are included in the Netflix Global Top 10 Movies ranking
- Kalshi resolves Yes if any of its 10 named movies appears at #2; Polymarket offers individual binary markets for each movie plus an 'other' catch-all
- If the movie at #2 matches any named option, that option resolves Yes; all other options resolve No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update failure: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 ranking by April 10, 2026 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; this is a minor procedural gap but does not affect resolution if the update occurs on schedule.
- Tie at #2 position: Netflix's official ranking does not typically show ties; if a tie occurs, Netflix's published ordering determines which movie is listed as #2.
- Movie not on list: If a named movie does not appear in the Top 10 at all, it does not rank #2, and that option resolves No.
- Unnamed movie at #2: If a movie not listed as a named option ranks #2, Polymarket's 'another movie' or 'other' option resolves Yes; Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the movie matches one of its 10 named options.