TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$30,695
Movie G 100%
Other 100%
Movie A 100%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies chart for the week ending February 17, 2026. Both platforms are asking the same core question but with different market structures: Kalshi lists 12 specific movies as individual Yes/No outcomes, while Polymarket offers multiple individual markets for specific titles plus a catch-all 'other' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi defines a closed set of 12 specific movies with implicit 'Other' resolution if none rank #2. Polymarket uses placeholder movie codes ('Movie A', 'Movie B', etc.) that are never defined, and explicitly includes an 'Other' outcome with a fallback trigger (no update by Feb 20, 2026). The mapping between Polymarket's placeholders and Kalshi's named movies is unclear.Hero Tip:
Before trading, obtain the definitive mapping of Polymarket's placeholder movie codes to real titles. Verify whether all 12 Kalshi movies are represented in Polymarket's markets. If Polymarket includes movies not on Kalshi's list, the platforms have different outcome spaces and cannot be directly arbitraged. Monitor the Feb 20 deadline on Polymarket; if Netflix's update is delayed, Polymarket may resolve to 'Other' while Kalshi remains unresolved.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Closed outcome set: 12 named movies (Terry McMillan Presents: Forever, The Investigation of Lucy Letby, Independence Day, Joe's College Road Trip, KPop Demon Hunters, Faith in the Flames: The Nichole Jolly Story, Copshop, How to Train Your Dragon, The Rip, Night at the Museum, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, Homefront). If any of these ranks #2, that market resolves Yes; all others resolve No. No explicit 'Other' outcome. Implicit assumption: Netflix update occurs on Feb 17, 2026.Polymarket:
Mixed outcome set: 18 individual markets including 5 named titles (The Rip, Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip, How to Train Your Dragon, The Investigation of Lucy Letby, Kpop Demon Hunters, Homefront), 11 undefined placeholder codes (Movie A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K), and 1 explicit 'Other' option. Explicit fallback: if Netflix does not update by Feb 20, 2026 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'. Placeholder movies are never defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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