TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 21 at 8:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge fundamentally on market scope and resolution logic. Polymarket offers 42 distinct markets covering moneyline, spreads, totals, half-time outcomes, and individual player props with granular thresholds and detailed resolution rules. Kalshi offers only a single binary market that resolves YES if either Atlanta or Golden State wins, creating a logical contradiction: both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to YES in a single market.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms expecting consistent outcomes. Polymarket markets are granular, specific, and resolvable. Kalshi's market is logically broken—it will resolve YES regardless of the game result, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Avoid Kalshi's market entirely or seek clarification from the platform before placing trades.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures 42 separate, mutually exclusive markets across multiple categories (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props) with precise thresholds, detailed edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, player inactivity), and clear resolution sources (official NBA box scores, NBA.com). Each market resolves to a single outcome based on specific game conditions. Example: 'Warriors vs. Hawks' moneyline resolves to Warriors or Hawks based on final score; 'Spread: Hawks (-9.5)' resolves to Hawks only if Hawks win by 10+ points, otherwise Warriors; 'Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 16.5' resolves Yes if Kuminga scores more than 16.5 points, No if 16.5 or fewer.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers a single binary market with contradictory resolution logic: 'If Atlanta wins the Golden State at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Golden State wins the Golden State at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—both mutually exclusive outcomes (Atlanta win and Golden State win) are specified to resolve to YES, meaning the market will resolve YES regardless of the actual game result, rendering it unresolvable and unfit for trading.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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