TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Wales and Northern Ireland will compete in a professional international friendly soccer match scheduled for March 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time, with no extra time or penalty shootouts considered. This is a standard bilateral match between two national teams in a non-competitive fixture.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for all three possible outcomes (Wales win, draw, or Northern Ireland win), making it a tautological market that cannot fail. Polymarket uses standard binary logic with three separate markets, each resolving YES or NO based on the specific outcome. This fundamental difference in market structure creates divergent resolution paths.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely — it resolves YES regardless of the match result, making it worthless for prediction. Trade only on Polymarket's three binary markets (Wales win, draw, Northern Ireland win), which offer genuine price discovery and risk differentiation.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's three markets are structured as tautologies that collectively resolve YES for every possible outcome. Each market states 'If [outcome X] wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' covering Wales win, draw, and Northern Ireland win. This means the market cannot resolve NO under any realistic scenario, rendering it logically incoherent as a prediction instrument.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market logic: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets, each resolving YES or NO based on a single outcome (Wales win, draw, or Northern Ireland win). Each market explicitly states the alternative outcome resolves to 'No,' and includes cancellation/postponement clauses. This structure allows genuine price discovery and mutually exclusive outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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