Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (Aarhus win, Viborg win, draw), while Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that all resolve YES regardless of outcome, creating a logical contradiction in Kalshi's framework.
Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi markets for this event. Kalshi's structure guarantees a YES resolution for all three markets simultaneously, which is logically impossible for a single match outcome. Polymarket's three-market structure correctly captures the mutually exclusive outcomes. If you must trade this event, use Polymarket only.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Polymarket presents three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match outcome: 'Will Aarhus GF win', 'Will Viborg FF win', or 'Will the match end in a draw'. Each market resolves NO if its condition is not met. The resolution source is 'official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers' with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves the draw market YES and the win markets NO. The scope is 'first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time'.
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three separate markets that each resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs (Viborg win, Aarhus win, or tie), but the market structure is ambiguous and creates a logical impossibility—all three markets cannot simultaneously resolve YES, yet the wording suggests each independently resolves YES upon its condition. No explicit resolution source, postponement rule, or cancellation clause is provided. The scope is identical to Polymarket ('90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties'), but the absence of source specification and edge-case handling creates unresolvability.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.