TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of the Bundesliga match between VfL Wolfsburg and SV Werder Bremen scheduled for March 21, 2026. Markets track whether Wolfsburg leads, Bremen leads, or the teams are tied after 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's ternary all-inclusive structure (all outcomes → Yes) is logically incompatible with Polymarket's three separate binary markets (only one outcome per market → Yes). This is not a minor timing or source difference; it is a fundamental architectural divergence that makes cross-platform comparison and settlement coordination impossible.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as entirely separate prediction systems. Kalshi's market is not a prediction market in the traditional sense—it is guaranteed to resolve Yes regardless of the halftime outcome. Polymarket's three binaries are true prediction markets where exactly one will resolve Yes and two will resolve No. Do not attempt to use one platform to validate or hedge the other.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Ternary all-inclusive logic: all three possible halftime outcomes (Wolfsburg win, Bremen win, tie) are explicitly listed as Yes resolution conditions. Quote: 'If Wolfsburg is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Bremen is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.' This guarantees Yes resolution regardless of match outcome.Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Wolfsburg Win market: Yes if Wolfsburg leads at halftime, No otherwise. Draw market: Yes if tied at halftime, No otherwise. Bremen Win market: Yes if Bremen leads at halftime, No otherwise. Quote: 'If VfL Wolfsburg wins within the first 45 minutes... this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' Exactly one of the three will resolve Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.