TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga match between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg scheduled for March 1, 2026. Markets span match outcome (win/loss/draw) on Polymarket and total goals scored on Kalshi, all resolving based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure orthogonal dimensions of the same match: Kalshi resolves on total goals (four separate thresholds), while Polymarket resolves on match outcome (win/loss/draw). Additionally, Polymarket's draw market contains a non-standard cancellation rule (resolves Yes if match is canceled) that has no parallel in Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as redundant or arbitrageable markets. Kalshi's four goal-threshold markets are independent scoring bets; Polymarket's outcome markets are directional bets. Separately monitor cancellation risk, as Polymarket's draw market will resolve Yes if the match is canceled entirely with no makeup—a rare and potentially profitable edge if cancellation becomes likely.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three binary outcome markets: Stuttgart win, Wolfsburg win, and draw. Each resolves Yes or No based on the match result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponed matches remain open; canceled matches with no makeup resolve No for win markets but Yes for the draw market. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (draw market only).Kalshi:
Four independent total-goals markets with thresholds at >1.5, >2.5, >3.5, and >4.5 collective goals. Each resolves Yes if the threshold is exceeded, No otherwise, within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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