TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Stuttgart win, Hamburg win, draw) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating a logical contradiction in the group structure.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-trade these markets assuming they are equivalent. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three outcomes will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for the same match result (e.g., if Stuttgart wins, all three Kalshi markets resolve YES). This is a structural incompatibility, not a minor wording difference. Verify your platform before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where the match outcome determines exactly one YES resolution. The three questions (Stuttgart win, Hamburg win, draw) are presented as separate markets but implicitly function as a single three-way outcome group. Key quote: 'If Hamburger SV wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — and similarly for Stuttgart and draw, meaning only one can resolve YES.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that all resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs, allowing multiple markets to resolve YES simultaneously for a single match. The three markets are: 'If Stuttgart wins...then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Hamburg wins...then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes' — all three can resolve YES for the same match result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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